Where is Reno in in our current market condition for real estate? Is this a good time to buy a house? Should I jump in right now? Should I wait?
If you were to ask a Realtor, the answer would likely be that we’ve finally reached the bottom and now we are in the long, slow, arduous climb back to where we “truly belong”. But, have you ever seen a time when a realtor didn’t say that now was a good time to buy? Couldn’t be a better time?
Me, neither. I’m not suggesting anything nefarious about realtors, here. I just think that if they’re not optimistic about their product, how could they do a good job, anyway?
But all of that is beside the point.
As the saying goes, “the reason for a horse race is a difference of opinion.”
Keith Jurow, writing in Businessinsider.com is firmly convinced that we are still headed for a housing collapse. He examined major markets across the country and found price declines. Exceptions were in Nevada, Arizona and Florida where we have already taken major hits. Foreclosures are way down in most areas but the number of delinquencies are still high.
We are still facing some very serious delinquencies. In many cases the problems were caused, or made worse by government action such as AB-284 here in nevada. This caused the banks to drastically slow their foreclosures. Consequently, the shadow inventories have grown substantially.
Nevada Foreclosure Filings: AB-284 Effective Oct., 2011
Jurow expects another significant drop in prices. Move-up buyers have disappeared because they lost most of their equity. First time buyers are usually limited to entry level properties. So, what’s left are the investors who are focusing on the “sand” states, which include Nevada. That may help us here in Reno.
Added to this we see a large number of potential sellers who, likewise, have little or no equity and are unable to sell. They may have taken out a HELOC or a cash out re-fi.
The bottom line is that I’m not optomistic.
Read more here.